YEREVAN, June 26. /ARKA/. Demographic data must become an integral part of state policy, as they allow for decisions based on understanding people's behavior and long-term trends in societal development. This was stated by Tigran Jrbashyan, director of the management consulting service Ameria, while speaking at a business forum dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
According to him, despite the fact that politicians around the world increasingly talk about a human-centered approach and the development of human capital, in practice such a policy cannot be implemented without a deep understanding of demographic processes.
“When it comes to human capital, the topic of demography inevitably arises. Demography is about people, their behavior, their perceptions of the future, and data that allows us to predict the further development of society,” Jrbashyan said.
He reminded that the development of Armenia's Demographic Strategy began in 2021 and lasted almost two years. During this time, extensive analytical work was conducted to study the causes of demographic changes, the impact of urbanization, industrialization, health care, food security, and other factors on population behavior.
Jrbashyan noted that one of the key analytical tools was the National Transfer Accounts studies, which allow for assessing the distribution of consumption and government expenditures by age and gender of the population. Additionally, Armenia is one of the few countries in the world to fully implement the National Time Transfer Accounts methodology, based on studies of time use by the population.
“This tool allows us to assess the economic value of unpaid labor, most of which is performed by women. In Armenia, the care economy is effectively one of the largest sectors of the economy, although in many countries in the region, its real scale is still underestimated,” the expert said.
According to Jrbashyan, when developing state policy, it is important to consider fundamentally different demographic trends in the countries of the region.
“There are states with aging populations—such as Armenia, Russia, and to some extent Kazakhstan. At the same time, there are countries experiencing a demographic dividend, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. These are completely different societies that require different approaches to state policy and investments,” he noted.
The expert expressed the opinion that international organizations currently do not sufficiently take these differences into account when implementing their programs.
“The integration of demographic data into the decision-making process should become mandatory. Today, all our countries face serious demographic challenges, and without taking these factors into account, it is impossible to build effective long-term policies,” emphasized Jrbashyan.
Speaking about the initial results of the implementation of Armenia's Demographic Strategy adopted in 2024, he noted that some of its provisions began to be implemented even before the official approval of the document.
According to him, the strategy is built around four key areas: family and birth support, reducing premature mortality and preserving human capital, developing active longevity, and improving migration policy.
“It is important not only to ensure the 'birth' of new human capital but also to maintain people's health throughout their lives, as well as create conditions under which the elderly can remain active and continue to create added value for the economy,” Jrbashyan stated.
He also emphasized that for Armenia, issues of immigration, emigration, and changes in migration flows have strategic significance in terms of preserving and developing human capital.
