The United States will hold its midterm elections on Nov. 3, and the outcome could define the political environment for the crypto industry next year. CoinDesk says the vote will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the House of Representatives and the Senate.
As of Oct. 2, polling suggests Democrats are on track to flip the House, while the Senate remains too close to call. That is the picture from 270towin’s consensus polling, and prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket were also pricing in Democratic wins in both chambers as of Friday.
The stakes are significant for crypto because Congress will continue to shape oversight and legislation. While the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury Department and other agencies are expected to keep working on rulemaking, Congress will oversee those regulators and approve their budgets.
CoinDesk notes that after the collapse of the Clarity Act, lawmakers are focusing more closely on tax policy. Last month, the House Ways and Means Committee passed a crypto tax bill with major bipartisan support, and last week Senator Steve Daines introduced a crypto tax bill in the Senate. Hearings and debate over a new market structure bill could also follow in the next Congress.
The industry is also concerned that a Democratic Congress could aggressively subpoena crypto firms involved in the administration of President Donald Trump because of concerns over his crypto business ties. So far, the sector’s direct election spending has been limited: Fairshake Super PAC has announced $30 million in expenditures, while the Digital Freedom Fund has announced $3 million targeting former Senator Sherrod Brown.
