YEREVAN, July 29. /ARKA/. The World Bank forecasts inflation in Armenia at 4.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.3% a year earlier, said the senior economist of the WB, Armine Manukyan.
“As of June, the average inflation rate is 4.6%. We expect it to remain at this level until the end of the year, although uncertainty remains high,” Manukyan said in response to a question from the ARKA agency during the presentation of the WB report “Economic Pulse of Armenia: Towards Growth that Reduces Poverty through More Effective Tax and Budget Policy.”
According to her, after a period of extremely low inflation and deflationary trends in 2024, prices in Armenia began to rise in 2025, and in 2026 the pace of growth accelerated.
The main contribution to inflation, according to Manukyan, comes from food products and non-alcoholic beverages, which she primarily attributed to rising global prices.
Among other inflationary factors, the economist mentioned increased healthcare spending and rising transportation costs.
“We expected that the rise in transportation and energy costs would have a more significant impact on inflation; however, so far in Armenia, this effect has been weaker than in several other countries,” Manukyan noted.
She also stated that the forecast takes into account the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East on domestic prices. Currently, this effect remains moderate but could intensify if the conflict drags on, disrupting trade routes or causing supply disruptions.
In the medium term, the World Bank expects a gradual slowdown in inflation to the Central Bank of Armenia's target of 3%.
About inflation
According to Armstat, in June 2026, the 12-month inflation rate in the consumer market of Armenia was 5.1%, and compared to May of the current year, there was deflation of 0.5%.
At the same time, from January to June 2026, prices increased by 4.6% compared to the same period in 2025.
In the state budget of Armenia for 2026, inflation is projected at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank's monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range from 4.4% to 3.3% depending on scenarios A-B, with forecasts for 2027 at 3.5% to 3.1%, and for 2028 at 3.2% to 3.1%.
