YEREVAN, July 18. /ARKA/. The sole driver of inflation acceleration in Armenia in June compared to May was the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which rose from 6.4% to 8.6%, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total inflation. This is stated in the World Bank’s report ‘Armenia Monthly Economic Update – July 2026’.
“Inflation remained high, increasing in June by 5.1% (y/y). This followed a slowdown in May to 4.2%, resulting in an average inflation rate of 4.6% for the first half of 2026,” the study notes.
It is also noted that alcoholic beverages and the education sector continued to show high inflation rates of 7.5% and 8.3% (y/y) respectively.
“On June 16, 2026, the Central Bank of Armenia’s Council decided to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 6.5% to balance two opposing pressures: on one hand, excessive demand and higher inflation expectations, and on the other hand, possible deflationary pressure, particularly against the backdrop of export issues with Russia,” the World Bank analysts stated.
The inflation rate in Armenia for the 2026 state budget is set at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the second quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to be between 4.1-3.9% depending on scenarios (A-B) for the end of 2026, with forecasts for 2027 at 3.6-2.9%, and for 2028 at 3.3-2.9%.
