President Trump’s threats to cut trade with Spain are exposing its reliance on the US, which supplies nearly 30% of its gas imports and about 20% of its crude. Spain can replace US crude with Brazilian, West African or additional CPC barrels, but the switch would raise freight costs, complicate refinery optimization and deepen exposure to other geopolitical risks.
The real vulnerability is LNG: Russian supply disappears under the EU ban in January 2027, Medgaz is already running near capacity, and Spain may soon have to compete with Asia for every flexible replacement cargo.
Donald Trump’s July 8 order to halt trade with Spain has yet to become an energy embargo, but Madrid can no longer dismiss it as political theatre.
