Aram Sargsyan, the president of the Republic party, made a post on his Facebook page addressing the ongoing demands from Russia:
"If it doesn't exist, then it doesn't exist...: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan participated in an event on July 6 in Yekaterinburg that was inappropriate for the head of state and met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, trying to resolve the issue of Russian restrictions on Armenian goods. In fact, the problem was not resolved. Moreover, the list of restrictions was expanded, and Mishustin did not even congratulate Pashinyan on his re-election as Prime Minister.
Today, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on his own initiative, called Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to reports, the Russian president demanded to fulfill the requirements of the EAEU leaders, to clearly determine whether Armenia will move towards the EU or the EAEU, and to resolve this issue through a referendum. In fact, once again, the problem was not resolved. Furthermore, Putin also did not congratulate Pashinyan on his re-election as Prime Minister.
Essentially, the Armenian Prime Minister has exhausted all possible options for resolving the situation with Russia and the EAEU. It turns out that the reality is becoming exactly what Pashinyan previously expressed, that "the EAEU does not exist." If it doesn't exist, then it doesn't exist.
In my opinion, the conclusion is as follows: Russia does not perceive Nikol Pashinyan as a full-fledged partner in the role of Prime Minister of Armenia. Putin, like Aliyev, is trying to impose a referendum on Armenia. For this purpose, he will likely activate all his influence tools this autumn, from political forces to church circles. If he does not achieve the desired results through this path, he may sharply raise the price of gas supplied to Armenia in the winter to strengthen the wave of protests.
What should Armenia do?
1. Withdraw from the CSTO.
2. Withdraw from the unified air defense system.
3. Accelerate the process of signing the Free Trade and Association Agreement with the EU, which has been pending since 2013.
The sequence of further steps should be developed considering Russia's reaction to these three steps.
By the way, both Georgia and Azerbaijan are not members of the EAEU. Moreover, Georgia does not even have diplomatic relations with Russia, but trade and economic ties, both direct and through shadow cooperation, including gas, are no less significant than those of Armenia.
Exiting the EAEU is Armenia's sovereign right. There is no legal obligation to hold a referendum for both joining and leaving. And after leaving, Armenia will have supporters and allies. Don't worry.
One thing is clear: countries that have exited the Russian sphere of influence today generally live more democratically, more securely, and more prosperously than those that remain in the CSTO and EAEU.
