Vardan Hakobyan is a guest on 168 TV's "Diplomat" program:
— Mr. Hakobyan, Nikol Pashinyan begins his new term amid what may be an unprecedented crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, with no post-election official congratulations, a significant disruption of political dialogue, and the introduction of economic restrictions, the latest of which we heard yesterday when the "Rosselkhoznadzor" announced its decision to block Armenian dairy products from the Russian market. How would you characterize the current situation? Do you think the Armenian authorities will manage to reach an agreement this time, or have the parties already crossed the point of no return?
— It is not that the current relations with Russia are unprecedented, but the "Civil Contract" came to power precisely with such slogans, that is, they contributed to its coming to power in Armenia since 2018, before that they were developing anti-Russian theses. And upon coming to power, from the first day the first step was a change in attitude towards Russia, which was reflected, say, in questions related to the CSTO, the same issue of Artsakh. That is, this is not new. The choice regarding Russia was made before coming to power, and it can be said that this is precisely why they came to power.
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And I always remind of its confirmation — Bolton's visit and his statement that it is necessary to change and get out of historical templates, and so on. And since then, people have been engaged in precisely this. Another thing is that, say, on some economic issues, since Armenia was very strongly, especially economically, and also militarily-political dependent on Russia (of course, leaving aside military-political dependence, the most important is economic), and due to economic issues, this matter was delayed.
The Russian side understood very well who came to power, what problems they had, and where this was all going, but based on the situation that had developed for Russia, particularly with the beginning of the confrontation with the West, already the growing threat, after the coup in Ukraine in 2014, etc., Russia found itself in a very serious situation, and therefore came to a certain compromise position to restrain, somewhere to delay processes, etc., although it very well saw that Russophobia, anti-Russian sentiments were gaining strength in Armenia and where this would lead.
Therefore, this is not new; this is the process for which they came and which, it must be said, they are implementing consistently. As for the red lines, I do not think that the red lines have yet been crossed. In diplomacy, if we talk about red lines, I do not know, in such relationships, etc., then it should be understood that the Republic of Armenia does not have the degree of sovereignty that it could, so to speak, have a certain position in these relations, be decisive. That is, it acts under certain external influence — based on the situation of forces that are opposed to Russia.
— Why do you think Russia has taken such a tough, intolerant stance at this stage? After all, the situation on the Ukrainian front is still quite complicated, active, relations with the West are again complicated, negotiations with the United States are again at a rather difficult stage, why now?
— We can say that it is complicated, but we can also say that some processes are not so. Although now a lot is being spread in the West that on the Ukrainian front the Ukrainians have become active, that they already seem to be violating and so on, these are delusions. Russia is watching and is consistently going its own way.
They know very well what they are doing, and the same applies to relations with the United States when they say that the Anchorage agreements are over, and so on, there are other things underneath. And this war, on the one hand, should be for Europe, Western Europe, or the European Union, let’s say, in a certain sense should also be for many other states — the United States, neighboring states, let’s say Turkey, or, if you like, even China, etc., because Ukraine has become a testing ground in many directions — both for testing weapons and for some diplomatic pathways, etc., to achieve certain goals indirectly, that is, through the lives of Ukrainians, at the expense of victims.
Now Russia took such a position because some things changed, both on the Ukrainian front, the issues are going very interestingly, Russia is acting very confidently, and as Russia, as a state with a large base, with experienced diplomats, understands very well what step, what it is going after, etc. And already, when it noticed that its positions were strengthening, rather than weakening, it can pay more strict attention to the South Caucasus.
Secondly, the South Caucasus, as a lost region, which is connected to the Middle East, has very great vital significance for Russia, as well as for Iran, Turkey. That is, gradually this center of contradictions between EU states is moving from Ukraine, etc., to the Middle East. That is, it can be said that it has long been there, but was in a relatively frozen state, and now here, when the current authorities intervene in these processes in the South Caucasus, they become the same intermediaries, as Ukraine in its anti-Russian process, so today they want to make Armenia an intermediary and a platform for the fight against Russia.
This is already beginning to strengthen certain challenges and may deepen over time, and it may become late, as they were quite forced to delay the issue of Ukraine. When the whole West accelerated the war, simply doing everything to make the Russians attack Ukraine — both arming and building those defensive zones, and if this special operation had not started, Ukraine itself would have started.
In 2014, there was a coup, the first thing they did was declare the residents of Donbass to be third and fourth sort people, made anti-Russian statements and began to shell Donetsk and Luhansk.
— You mentioned that the situation could also flare up here, but the Armenian authorities are essentially going down the path of negotiations, maintaining a conciliatory position, and what should cause the situation to flare up?
— The Armenian authorities do not decide. Negotiations and so on are all an imitation, a smoke screen. It is decided what kind of relationships will be formed, whether there will be an outbreak or not, how and by what path, by other states, major powers decide, say, the United States, the European Union, say, Turkey, it depends on them how these negotiations will go, whether they will continue or not.
They spread that now our authorities will negotiate, will talk to the Russians, will regulate, we will still receive gas at the same price, the market will be open for us, etc., but as soon as we solve these economic issues, find an alternative, we will cut off immediately. That is, he puts the state with which he is in relations in a foolish position. It is impossible, he can put you in a foolish position for some time — as long as you are sitting quietly, and then the issues will be resolved immediately. So these negotiations are not significant here.
Now look at how they distract our society. That is, this is a typical European liberal-globalist method — to manipulate public consciousness. For example, they talk about "TRIPP". Supposedly work is underway, they are negotiating with America, going back and forth, having meetings, or talking about alternative gas through Azerbaijan, the Turkish market, the European market, etc. All this is not serious, because, I repeat, those names they give — those states or state figures, that is one side. The second side — the Armenian side, in fact, has no subjectivity.
That is, what they dictate and demand, he does it one way or another. They say, "Sign TRIPP" — they sign, they say, "This path should go this way" — they agree, and so on. Here, in a large sense, there are no inter-state relations as such. That is, how do states… If you identify your state interest, your national interest, you put it on that level, what their demands are, that is, as such, there is no your state-national interest.
— You mention that the Armenian authorities, in fact, do not decide, have no influence. In your opinion, what decision does the Russian Federation have regarding Armenia, regarding the South Caucasus, how will developments unfold, what to expect?
— The red lines, it seems to me, have not yet been crossed, and the Russian side hopes that through diplomatic means, in a certain sense — through political pressure, it will be able to resolve the issue. I do not rule out that, for example, there is also a discussion with Iran regarding the development of the situation in the South Caucasus.
Since Armenia, in fact, does not conduct any independent foreign policy, it does not set a task, then for Armenia these solutions, that is, solutions — in the interests of Russia and in the interests of Iran, that is, based on their interests, can be both unexpected and incomprehensible for us, and simply they will decide, they will do it, because for both Iran and Russia it is vital.
