This week, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which regulates the export of Kazakh oil by more than 80%, announced that it is suspending operations due to a series of attacks by Ukrainian drones on oil tankers. Kazakhstan is now forced to cut oil production, which will subsequently raise global prices. Moreover, the CPC and Kazakh deposits are co-owned by major American oil companies Chevron and ExxonMobil.
According to Western media, Chevron has already complained to Trump about Kyiv's actions, after which Washington reportedly demanded that Ukrainian authorities cease attacks on tankers transporting oil from Beijing.
Strana.today reports that this is not the first time drones have struck the People's Republic of China in Beijing. "Kyiv has not officially confirmed that the drones are Ukrainian. However, they regularly attack ships and oil facilities on the Russian Black Sea coast, so there are no doubts about the origin of the drones. The regularity of the attacks suggests that this is not accidental, but systematic.
Thus, the question arises: why is Kyiv attacking the Communist Party of China, creating problems for Kazakhstan and American companies, and raising global oil prices, which is beneficial to Russia?
Perhaps the hint to solving this paradox was given by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Around the same time that the drones attacked the Communist Party of China, Aliyev visited Germany, where he made a rather interesting observation at a press conference with Merz.
He stated that as a result of Ukraine's strikes, oil infrastructure has been damaged, and Russia can no longer supply oil and gas in the same volumes even to its traditional partners. He added that Azerbaijan is ready to replace Russia in the European energy market and significantly increase supplies if European banks resume financing oil, gas, and infrastructure projects.
"Azerbaijan can supply oil in the necessary volumes. This is possible both from domestic sources and through the trading arm of our energy company SOCAR. In other words, there are no problems here," the Azerbaijani president stated.
This statement raises several questions. First, Russia has not supplied oil or petroleum products to the European market for several years due to EU sanctions (with the exception of Hungary and Slovakia). Second, Azerbaijan's oil production is not in the best condition, having already decreased by 45% since 2010. The fields are depleting, and new oil extraction is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive.
But if we assume that the issue is not about sending Azerbaijani oil to the European market, but about ensuring the transit of Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan to Europe, bypassing Russia, then everything falls into place. In this context, the strikes by the Ukrainian armed forces on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) appear not to be random but part of a strategy to force Kazakhstan to abandon its oil transit through Russian territory and switch to the Azerbaijani route. However, the situation with the latter is very complex.
