Financials have improved beneath the surface, and Blackstone (BX) is starting to participate after a prolonged corrective phase. The stock has constructive signals across multiple timeframes, suggesting there is an opportunity for an attractive entry point into a long-term turnaround story.
BX has a secular uptrend in place supported by the monthly cloud model. The latest pullback brought the stock into the cloud, which is potential long-term support near $107.
A new long-term oversold upturn in the monthly stochastics and a more notable loss of long-term downside momentum increases the likelihood that the stock is entering a long-term turnaround phase.
The slope of the monthly cloud rises into year-end, which should continue to bolster price and provide support for the secular uptrend.
BX has rebounded from the lower end of its cyclical downtrend channel, and intermediate-term momentum has been improving for several weeks.
The next important resistance zone is $152-$156, defined by the weekly cloud and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
A move through that zone would target the top of the downtrend channel.
The daily chart has also improved, with BX gapping higher into its 200-day MA, which is resistance near $133.
We think the 200-day MA will be broken decisively given the improvement in short-term momentum and the series of higher lows that have been established since the spring.
Relative to the S&P 500 Index (SPX), BX has broken out above a downtrend line, signaling an important shift in relative momentum.
The breakout supports greater outperformance versus the SPX in Q3 as the market favors stocks that had formerly lagged.
The improving short-term setup in absolute and relative terms is compelling because it is occurring within a strengthening long-term context.
BX is emerging from a prolonged corrective phase, providing a favorable risk/reward profile for long-term investors and a timely opportunity to add exposure.
