YEREVAN, July 20. /ARKA/. Among the main events of the past week were external assessments of sovereign and banking risks and discussions on the further direction of monetary policy. In the banking sector, the focus was on capital adequacy and liquidity, lending rates, customer protection in remote services, and compliance with international requirements.
1. Sovereign Rating: Fitch has maintained Armenia's rating at 'BB-'
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has confirmed Armenia's long-term issuer default ratings at 'BB-' with a 'Positive' outlook. The agency noted high economic growth rates and stable institutional indicators while also highlighting the current account deficit, geopolitical risks, and limited adequacy of international reserves.
2. MONEYVAL: experts identified reputational risks and the need for proportional control
The MONEYVAL report on Armenia recorded progress in developing the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing system, while also pointing out the insufficient effectiveness of investigations, prosecutions, and confiscations of criminal assets.
3. Inflation remains above the central bank's target level
Fitch Ratings expects inflation in Armenia to average 4.4% in 2026, after which it will gradually return to the target level of 3%.
4. Payments and Fintech: banks have implemented a remote operation blocking mechanism
Since July 1, 2026, financial organizations in Armenia providing remote services have been operating a 'STOP' mechanism that allows clients to independently limit certain operations or completely block remote financial services.
5. Currency Market: the dollar maintained stability amid the ruble's decline
The average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Armenian dram slightly increased from 366.69 on Monday to 366.85 dram on Friday.
6. Banking Sector: capital and liquidity limit systemic risks
Fitch Ratings noted that risks to Armenia's financial stability are mitigated by strong capital and liquidity positions of banks.
7. Inflation: The World Bank highlighted the food factor
The only factor accelerating annual inflation in Armenia in June compared to May was food and non-alcoholic beverages.
8. Monetary Conditions: Fitch has projected a temporary increase in the Central Bank's rate
Week's Results
The week showed that the confirmation of the sovereign rating, high bank capitalization, and the stability of the dollar/dram pair maintain the current market configuration.
