XRP is nearing a key technical signal known as a golden cross, as bitcoin’s share of the crypto market declines and traders increasingly rotate into altcoins. According to CoinDesk, XRP’s 50-day moving average is now about 2% below its 200-day average, the narrowest gap since the token’s last golden cross in August 2024.
A golden cross is confirmed when an asset’s 50-day moving average rises above its 200-day moving average. In chart analysis, it is generally viewed as a bullish long-term signal. Bitcoin recently confirmed its own golden cross, adding to market attention around the pattern.
XRP’s historical record, however, argues for caution. CoinDesk notes that none of the token’s previous 16 golden crosses lasted as long as 12 months. Each was eventually followed by a death cross, the bearish counterpart in moving-average analysis. Six of those signals failed to hold even for three months.
Short-term performance has been mixed rather than uniformly weak. Of the 10 instances that lasted long enough to reach the three-month mark, five produced gains ranging from 85% to more than 1,000%. CoinDesk highlights a 1,009.6% rally after the April 2017 signal and a 135% gain after the February 2021 cross. The other five cases ended in losses of as much as 32%.
CoinDesk also says analysts remain broadly constructive on bitcoin’s price outlook despite this week’s headwinds, including the setback for the Clarity Act and a Federal Reserve rate increase. At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $78,000, little changed from a week earlier.
At the same time, bitcoin dominance — its share of total crypto market capitalization — has fallen below 59%, its lowest level in a month. The market is reading that as a sign of capital rotating into altcoins. Over the past 24 hours, UNI, NEAR and ARB have each surged by nearly 30%.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FxPro, told CoinDesk that altcoins have accelerated sharply while the largest crypto assets lag behind. He said markets are hoping for crypto adoption progress at the SEC and CFTC, along with passage of the Bitcoin Reserve Bill. Even so, he added that traders are only cautiously shifting toward altcoins for now, as neither the altcoin season index nor broader market sentiment has yet reached elevated levels.
The table published by the source tracks XRP’s price performance three and 12 months after each of its 16 previous golden crosses. The figures suggest that, like many technical indicators, the signal is not fully reliable when used on its own and should be assessed within a broader market context.
