Geopolitics sometimes changes not by signing a contract, but by changing the country of origin of a product. On August 29, Russia extended the ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of September. The official reason is to stabilize the domestic market. The real reason is more eloquent: after Ukrainian strikes, several Russian oil refining capacities were damaged, and one of the world's largest energy exporters is forced to limit fuel exports to meet its own demand.
However, an important part of this story for Armenia is not in Russia. It is in Azerbaijan. This year, about 15,000 tons of diesel and 5,000 tons of gasoline have already been supplied from Azerbaijan to Armenia. The volumes are still modest, but the political significance is not. Months ago, the entry of Azerbaijani fuel into the Armenian market seemed incredible. Today, the question is no longer whether this is possible, but how much the import will increase in September. This is a small but very precise indicator of the changing world economy of the South Caucasus.
For more than three decades, Armenia's economic geography has been shaped around two closed borders. Turkey and Azerbaijan were closed, Iran's opportunities were limited, and Georgia was the main transit gateway. In these conditions, Russia became not only Armenia's main security partner but also a crucial hub of its economic activity - from gas and fuel to railways, markets, labor migration, and remittances. Geographical isolation produced dependence on Russia, and dependence on Russia had political value. Now this mechanism is beginning to crumble.
The irony of history is that this is facilitated by Russia's war in Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes damage Russian refining capacities, Moscow restricts exports, and former buyers seek alternatives. Turkey has already sharply increased imports of American and Indian diesel. Armenia may accelerate its supply diversification under similar pressure.
But the emergence of Azerbaijani fuel in the Armenian market speaks to a more significant reality. Peace is starting to become a commodity. For thirty years, there have been almost no economic beneficiaries of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There have been no producers, carriers, traders, or consumers for whom the closure of borders meant immediate financial loss. Therefore, war and peace have mainly been the business of states and armies. Trade changes this equation.
