Brent crude fell below $105 a barrel after markets took a calmer view of Saudi Arabia’s revised export setup. Saudi Aramco has redirected all crude loadings to the Persian Gulf, easing some of the supply anxiety that had rattled traders the previous week.
Last week, the market was gripped by concerns that the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline could remain offline for weeks. This week, however, sentiment turned more measured. While shipments from Ras Tanura still face the risk of possible Iranian drone strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco’s continued offers to Asian buyers helped soothe the market. According to the source, the picture for European buyers has been markedly different.
As a result, ICE Brent slipped below $105 per barrel, falling a few cents below last week’s settlement level.
Saudi Aramco seeks a quick partial restart of East-West pipeline
Saudi Aramco expects flows through the damaged 7 million b/d East-West pipeline to resume within days after drone attacks hit multiple pumping stations. The company is aiming for at least a partial restart to ease pressure on Gulf loadings.
Other key developments across energy markets
OilPrice also highlighted a broader set of market-moving developments. Canada’s federal government has expanded investment tax incentives, supporting more than C$100 billion in planned spending on oil sands, pipeline and CCS projects over the next decade. That would leave new projects facing an effective tax rate of just 6.4%.
Container traffic through the Suez Canal has started to recover gradually. Some 27% of Asia-Europe container capacity is now transiting the canal, up from 17% in early August, although renewed Houthi-Saudi hostilities are still preventing a full return.
The Shell-led LNG Canada project (LON:SHEL) could win approval for its 14 mtpa Phase 2 expansion as early as October. That would double total capacity to 28 mtpa and reinforce Ottawa’s shift toward Asian markets as the U.S. trade outlook deteriorates.
Libya has settled a dispute with a faction of the Petroleum Facilities Guard that had temporarily disrupted output at the North Hamada field. The move reduces wider risks to the 300,000 b/d El Sharara field and the 90,000 b/d El Feel field.
In its 2026 annual energy outlook, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reiterated its forecast that oil demand will rise to 105 million b/d by 2050, up 5 million b/d from current levels. At the same time, the company raised its global emissions outlook by 10% to 30 billion tonnes of CO2.
India pushed back against proposed U.S. tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian crude, warning that such measures could complicate bilateral trade talks and threaten energy security. Indian refiners’ imports from Russia are averaging 2 million b/d in September.
Vietnam’s Ca Mau province is seeking approval for a 155,000 b/d refinery and petrochemical complex. The project would begin with a 65,000 b/d phase before expanding to full capacity, while PetroVietnam is looking at processing a 50:50 blend of Middle Eastern and South American crude.
Independent refiners in China’s Shandong province have cut run rates to 50-60%, down from 65-66% in August, as Iranian barrels disappear from the market. Beijing is also weighing options including a possible 100 million-barrel strategic stock release.
Russia has reportedly extended its diesel export ban through the end of October while keeping restrictions on non-producers and gasoline exports in place until January 2027. Refinery outages and Ukrainian attacks remain part of the disruption backdrop.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington could soon resume oil sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Under the Trump administration’s 172-million-barrel emergency drawdown program, 38.5 million barrels remain available.
Premiums for Russia’s ESPO Blend have surged to record highs as Chinese refiners moved to secure all November-arriving cargoes. Delivered premiums into Shandong reached a record $29 per barrel over Brent.
At least two LNG cargoes transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, including a Qatar-loaded shipment from Ras Laffan. Since mid-August, at least three ship-to-ship transfers have also been recorded off Oman, signalling tentative efforts to restore Gulf LNG exports.
EU finance ministers are considering a bloc-wide windfall tax on energy company profits after oil prices moved back above $100 per barrel. So far, however, the European Commission has not proposed an EU-wide mechanism and says member states can act individually.
South Korea has extended fuel tax relief through Nov. 30, maintaining cuts of 15% on gasoline and 25% on diesel and butane. The government says that could lower pump prices by as much as 145 won per liter, or about $0.40 per gallon.
