Ukraine's pressure on Belarus shows that the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is experiencing fractures. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia are increasingly resisting Moscow's political and economic influence. Russia's inability to shape developments in allied states raises questions about the future effectiveness of its regional alliances.
Vladimir Putin's powers of coercion are rapidly fading, and his chief instruments of regional leverage are dissolving. Ukrainian drones threaten not only Russia but also the CSTO, which is Moscow's version of NATO.
In mid-June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued an ultimatum to Belarus: immediately cease supporting the Russian military or face a drone barrage. Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko appeared to comply, at least in part, stating that Minsk didn’t want to be drawn into the war.
This situation exposes the limits of the Kremlin’s leverage, and Belarus, as a CSTO member, could demand a collective response from other members to Ukrainian actions. However, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have already indicated they have no intention of getting involved in the Ukraine war.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is facing a similar credibility crisis, where Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have complained that the economic bloc serves Russia's interests.
