According to Rystad Energy, European winter temperatures need to run at least 2 degrees Celsius above average before LNG demand can drop back to last winter's level. A strong El Niño now has near-certain odds of forming, but even the moderate 1-degree scenario still leaves Europe importing at least 7 million more tonnes of LNG than last winter.
Hostilities in the Middle East have already cut Persian Gulf LNG deliveries and pushed up prices, raising the stakes on whether this winter's weather delivers any relief. Only an exceptionally strong El Niño will meaningfully ease Europe's LNG needs this winter, and forecasters currently rate that outcome as a long shot.
