From a strategic alliance to the transformation and deepening of partnership relations with Russia. This is how Yerevan's stance towards Moscow has changed over five years:
If in Nikol Pashinyan's government program for 2021-2026, Russia occupied the top position in the section on “Security and Foreign Policy,” being linked to Armenia's security provision, in the program of the newly formed government for 2026-2031, Russia is mentioned only in eighth place among other countries, falling behind regional neighbors, the European Union, the United States, and France:
This time it is only noted that dialogue aimed at mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia will continue, in the context of a new foreign policy situation aimed at transforming, developing, and deepening relations. There are no longer any mentions of bilateral mutual assistance agreements, the Russian military base in Gyumri, and Russian border guards:
“From the moment we understood that we could suffer from cooperation with one, and our people have seen all this, suffer from dependence on one, be left alone, because the national interests of that one do not correspond to the interests of the Republic of Armenia at this moment, we understood that we need alternatives. I do not think this is a message because we are talking very openly and transparently,” said Lilit Minasyan, a deputy from the Civil Contract faction.
The new government's five-year program does not mention the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the military alliance that Armenia has frozen its membership in recent years. But it is still unclear whether Yerevan intends to leave the organization:
“What is the point of leaving? There will come a time when, if such a decision is needed, such a decision will be made,” Minasyan noted:
In 2021, Pashinyan's government promised to be actively involved in the CSTO's work. Yerevan is now dissatisfied that the military alliance did not protect Armenia from Azerbaijani incursions in 2021-2022:
“Say that there was an attack on sovereign territory, we want our security environment, which, so to speak, was also guaranteed by the security structures built by the CSTO member states, to respond to the attack on its member. We do not hear a response to this,” emphasized the deputy from the Civil Contract.
“Diplomacy is not black and white, it’s not a zebra, it’s not that this line is black and this line is white. You should have built your policy in such a way that you did not make enemies of those people, but used their resources,” insisted Arthur Khachatryan, a deputy from the opposition Armenia faction.
Instead, the new government promises to “develop effective cooperation” in the Eurasian Union. But even here, relations with Armenia are not smooth: a significant portion of Armenian agricultural products is under restrictions, and the economic union has set a condition for Yerevan to hold a referendum on external orientation in the near future. Does the five-year program mean that Armenia will not apply for EU membership in the near future, continuing to remain in the Russian economic union?
“The government program is not a sacred record, and many things can change in the context of flexible foreign policy. Therefore, I clearly say that our goal is to deepen all this, and we will move in that direction, but we will also simultaneously carry out other work included in the EU cooperation block of the government program,” Minasyan stated;
“It takes two to tango. The government says it does not want to leave the EAEU, but what does the EAEU think? Now it says, ‘We are not changing our sovereignty for strawberries,’ that’s good, but what assistance package do you offer to the person who grew strawberries and whose life depends on selling strawberries?” Khachatryan countered:
Regarding the European Union, the government refers to the law on starting the process of joining the bloc, promising to implement reforms based on it. However, no deadlines for membership are mentioned:
“Russia has become merely a trade partner. So if this is your policy, not just adopted today but implemented for over a year, why are you surprised that the Russians are taking countermeasures against you?” noted the deputy from the Armenia faction.
Official Moscow has not yet responded to the formulations contained in the government program.
