Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service issued a statement on Moscow-Yerevan relations, claiming that Russian influence in Armenia has declined.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, the Kremlin's approach of “punishing a rebellious neighbor with a brandy ban” is no longer effective, Factor.am reports.
“For years, Russia viewed Armenia as its undisputed foothold and pocket partner in the South Caucasus, but after yet another failed special operation to interfere in Armenia’s elections, Russia is finally losing its influence in the region. Pro-Russian forces suffered a crushing defeat in the parliamentary elections, and instead of the expected submissive apology, the Kremlin received a clear distancing from Nikol Pashinyan and a turn toward the West,” the statement said.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service also said that, in response, Rospotrebnadzor “suddenly” discovered risks in Armenian apricots, cherries, fish, Jermuk mineral water, and cognac.
“These sweeping trade restrictions, imposed ahead of the harvest season to deal Armenia an economic blow, were supposed to drive Yerevan into a dead end. But the Kremlin forgot that we no longer live in the 1990s. Pashinyan sarcastically ‘thanked’ his partners in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for recognizing the right to seek alternative trade routes and stated directly that if Russia’s actions paralyze the union, it would mark ‘the beginning of the end of the EAEU,’” the statement said.
The intelligence service’s statement also said Moscow’s main trump card in the region had already been played in the autumn of 2023.
“For years, the Kremlin kept Yerevan and Baku ‘tied’ through the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But when Azerbaijan restored control over Karabakh within two days, Russian ‘peacekeepers’ were simply reduced to the status of secondary players and shamefully left the region ahead of schedule,” the intelligence service wrote.
The statement also said the situation was compounded by the failure to fulfill military obligations. According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, when Azerbaijan advanced into Armenian territory in September 2022, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, instead of providing assistance, proposed “resolving the border issue.” The service assessed that after such “protection,” trust in Russia in Armenia fell to an unprecedented low.
“Realizing that its nominal ‘ally’ was capable only of manipulation, Yerevan made a 180-degree turn. While Russia was obstructing apricot imports, Brussels opened its markets and allocated tens of millions of dollars under the Armenia Development Program. Moscow’s monopoly over control of the South Caucasus has officially been reduced to zero,” the statement emphasized.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that the Kremlin’s latest methods of pressure, including threats to raise gas prices and the possibility of exerting pressure on Yerevan through infrastructure, could also be neutralized.
The statement said that with the signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the opening of borders with Turkey, Yerevan is definitively reducing Moscow’s opportunities for influence and depriving it of leverage. The Ukrainian intelligence service also cited Armenia’s announced decision to begin the process of formally applying for membership in the European Union as the latest manifestation of the Kremlin’s geopolitical defeat.
