YEREVAN, July 22. /ARKA/. The confirmation by the international rating agency Fitch Ratings of Armenia's sovereign rating at 'BB-' with a 'positive' outlook appears overly optimistic, as the sustainability of the peace process with Azerbaijan remains in question, said Tatoul Manasaryan, head of the Alternative research center and Doctor of Economic Sciences.
"I think the forecast is overly optimistic and somewhat detached from reality, as a lot of serious work needs to be done for its realization," Manasaryan said in an interview with ARKA agency.
According to him, the future of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remains unpredictable even in the short term.
"Despite the agreements reached between the two countries, new surprises from the leadership of the neighboring country can be expected every day. The current situation can be characterized by the formula 'neither peace nor war.' I would not make long-term forecasts based on this," the expert noted.
Manasaryan believes that Armenia needs to develop various scenarios for economic development, taking into account geopolitical risks, the possible opening of the border with Turkey, changes in trade conditions, and various options for relations with the Eurasian Economic Union.
He reminded that Armenia's exports to Russia exceed $700 million a year, while the volume of support offered by the European Union is significantly less.
"For the economy, such scenario analysis is a much more useful tool than calculations based solely on favorable expectations," the expert emphasized.
According to him, issues of economic security should become one of the key areas of state economic policy.
Manasaryan also did not rule out that delays in preparing for the constitutional referendum or a negative voting result could lead to a revision of Armenia's rating forecast.
"Of course. However, such organizations are not always able to demonstrate the necessary flexibility and often show insufficient knowledge of the country and the region," he said.
The expert also pointed out that local analytical structures hardly engage in such research, and the few forecasts from Armenian organizations are not taken into account by either the government or the Central Bank.
Speaking about the risks for the rating, Manasaryan noted that geopolitical uncertainty remains one of the main factors for the Armenian economy.
"No one has guaranteed either the establishment of peace or that Azerbaijan or Turkey will not take aggressive actions against Armenia. That is why the state's economic strategy should provide for mechanisms of resilience even in the event of unfavorable developments," he stated.
