U.S.-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has come under scrutiny over its newly launched crypto perpetual futures, after posts on X alleged that trading volumes on the venue were being artificially inflated, particularly in its ether contract ETH-PERP.
The dispute centers on how market activity is measured. Beni, a quantitative analyst and co-founder of Stealth Neolab, said on X that Kalshi’s ETH-PERP contract posted $539 million in 24-hour trading volume against just $3.1 million in open interest. In his view, that meant volume was 174 times larger than the value of open positions, a pattern often seen as a possible sign of wash trading or fabricated activity.
To support his case, Beni pointed to repeated trades of exactly $5,500. He said those identical trade sizes accounted for as much as 58% of Kalshi’s ether perpetual volume across four separate days, calling the pattern “undeniable proof” of volume manipulation.
He also cited a rebate schedule filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), under which some Self-Clearing Members could face a net zero fee because a 0.3-basis-point maker rebate offsets a 0.3-basis-point taker fee. His argument was that if the cost of trading against oneself falls to zero, the incentive to inflate volumes rises.
Kalshi’s response
IcoBeast.eth, who oversees product development at Kalshi, rejected the wash trading claims on X and said the criticism stemmed from a misunderstanding of how the platform works. According to him, the original complaint relied on an Artemis chart that measured prediction-market share rather than perpetual contract volume.
He also explained why Kalshi’s reported volume figures appear so large. Kalshi, he said, uses the same reporting convention as Polymarket: volume reflects the maximum potential payout of contracts, not the upfront cash spent. Because each event contract pays exactly $1 to the winner, the market counts volume by the total number of those $1 outcomes at stake.
As an example, he said that if a trader buys 100,000 contracts priced at 30 cents, the trader spends only $30,000 in cash, but the system records $100,000 in volume because that is the maximum value of the contracts at settlement. In his telling, this inflates the headline volume number, but does not amount to fake trading.
IcoBeast.eth also rejected the suggestion that Kalshi handpicks a closed group of Self-Clearing Members. Under CFTC rules, he said, fair access is required, meaning any firm that meets the capital and operational standards is entitled to join a regulated exchange.
He added that Kalshi does not offer rebates on its crypto event prediction contracts. At the same time, IcoBeast.eth acknowledged that rebate programs are common across venues such as CME Group, Hyperliquid and Binance, but argued that Kalshi’s differentiator is transparency. As a regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), the company must publicly file all of its incentive programs with the CFTC.
Kalshi’s product executive also acknowledged that the company’s U.S. perpetual product is still at an early stage, while stressing that its regulatory obligations provide transparency. CoinDesk said it had asked Kalshi for additional comment but had not received an immediate response at the time of publication.
