Six months after the U.S. and Israel launched major combat operations in Iran, the conflict has settled into a prolonged standoff with no clear end in sight. The Trump administration has shifted toward economic pressure, including planned secondary sanctions, as it pulls back from further major military escalation.
Experts told CNBC the strategy is unlikely to force Iran to capitulate quickly, while continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz keep escalation risks high.
Markets grow accustomed to war
Oil prices remain volatile amid the ongoing uncertainty. Front-month Brent crude oil futures have gained almost 20% since the war began — but the contracts are now trading around a third lower than their April peak of $126.41 a barrel.
Equity markets have also largely shrugged off the potential ramifications of the conflict, with global stocks seeing a broad rally this year as corporate earnings optimism outweighed concerns about the war's implications for the world economy.
No breakthrough in sight
As the war neared the six-month milestone, Middle East experts told CNBC that while the nature of the conflict appeared to have shifted, a near-term breakthrough to bring the war to an end is unlikely.
Iran's economy squeezed
Steven A. Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, said the U.S. would likely respond militarily if any American ships or personnel are attacked, but added that the Iranian leadership is prepared to endure a lot of hardship and inflict a lot of pain on its own population.
Measuring success in the Iran war
The Trump administration has still not defined what victory for the United States would look like, although it has articulated wide-reaching goals.
