A year has passed since the Washington agreements; what has Yerevan gained from this deal, and what impact has it had on Armenia? Sargis Khandanian, a deputy from the ruling Civil Contract faction, states that it is important that the process is moving forward, trade with Azerbaijan is already underway, and relations with the United States have deepened, evidenced by the recently opened Artificial Intelligence factory.
“This is a process that aligns with Armenia's interests, and we will continue to move in this direction. We have repeatedly stated that our relations with any country do not come at the expense of our other relationships, and this is the essence of balanced and balancing foreign policy,” Khandanian declared.
What stage is the railway construction project under TRIPP currently at, and can the war and unconfirmed peace between the U.S. and Iran hinder this project, considering that TRIPP is also an American initiative, and the railway, according to previous statements, is supposed to run very close to the Iranian border? Khandanian asserts that there is no cause for concern, as there is mutual understanding between Armenia and Iran on this issue.
“I believe there is no reason for concern; the Armenian government has actively discussed this issue with our Iranian partners, there is understanding on this matter, and I do not think anyone should worry that Iranian-American tensions could affect the implementation of this project,” Khandanian insisted.
However, experts have a different view regarding Iran's stance. Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at the APRI Armenia analytical center, states that Tehran's concerns regarding TRIPP remain, as recently expressed by Iranian experts during a closed discussion in Kapan.
These concerns are related to the vital importance of uninterrupted communication on the Armenia-Iran border and the presence of the United States.
“Of course, they are concerned about the potential presence of the United States, which may even be non-military but could be used for intelligence purposes, indicating a possible threat in the security domain,” Melkonyan noted.
Regarding the TRIPP project, Melkonyan believes it is more of a geopolitical project than an economic one. In conditions where it is still unclear whether the entire region will be blocked for Armenia if TRIPP is implemented, the APRI center has calculated two scenarios.
If only the road connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenia is put into operation, Armenia could receive only about $23 million annually. However, if the region is unblocked, Armenia could receive 16 times more—around $388 million annually.
Thus, the unblocking of the entire region is more crucial for Armenia, yet there are still no signs from Azerbaijan and Turkey in this regard.
“We need access to the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. In this case, it is necessary to open other existing communications, particularly the railway, which currently has no significance on the agenda,” said the APRI Armenia researcher.
If only TRIPP is launched and other routes are not opened for Armenia, Melkonyan believes this could legitimize a new blockade of Armenia.
Political scientists highlight the impact of the Washington agreements signed last August on the risk of escalation in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Comparing to the spring of 2025, the difference is evident; the risk of escalation has significantly decreased, says Benjamin Poghosyan, a senior researcher at the APRI foundation.
“Since August 8, 2025, this risk has significantly decreased, and it can be said that it has approached zero,” Poghosyan noted.
