The blockade of the Hormuz Strait due to the war with Iran has disrupted energy supplies from the Middle East and weakened the US's energy advantage, reports The Financial Times.
The US remains the largest oil producer in the world, but production growth has nearly come to a halt. According to the US Energy Information Administration, production is expected to increase by only 200,000 barrels per day this year, while the blockade has removed about 20 million barrels per day from the market.
The war has also driven up fuel prices in the US; since the start of the conflict, gasoline and diesel prices have risen by about 40%. In May, inflation reached 4.2%, the highest in three years, while interest rates on 30-year mortgages have risen from 5.98% to 6.65%.
Economic growth has also been weaker than expected. In the second quarter of 2026, GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than the government's higher forecasts.
S&P Global Energy forecasts that by 2035, oil refining capacity in the US will decrease by 7% to 16.7 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, US and European oil refineries are already operating at nearly maximum capacity due to fuel shortages.
Before the war, nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the Hormuz Strait.
