In 2026, gas prices in Europe have risen by nearly 120%, and low inventory levels along with supply disruption risks are increasing the likelihood of higher expenses this winter, reports Euronews.
Hot weather has increased the demand for electricity, while drought and high temperatures have reduced production at hydroelectric and nuclear power plants. As a result, the demand for gas-fired power plants has surged just as Europe needs to replenish its winter supplies.
Dutch TTF futures, the main price benchmark for the European gas market, have risen by about 120% since the beginning of the year, reaching around €63.7 per MWh. Although prices are still significantly lower than the peak of €350 recorded during the 2022 energy crisis, Europe is approaching winter with historically low inventories.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of August 1, European gas storage facilities were only 57.1% full, the lowest level for this date in the entire observation period.
Replenishing supplies is also complicated by supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and extended work stoppages at Norwegian gas fields.
Oxford Economics expects that the forecast for European gas prices may be raised to an average of about €60 per MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, instead of the current forecast of €45.
