Europe, long seen as one of the regions most exposed to energy shocks, is coping with the current oil and gas disruption better than many expected, according to an OilPrice analysis. The argument is that the difference is not down to short-term crisis management, but to two decades of investment in efficiency and lower energy intensity.
The piece says Brent was trading a touch above $104 in the morning, while the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows before the war, has effectively been shut since March. Saudi output fell by around 1.9 million barrels per day in August, tanker rates have hit records, and the EIA does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.
Against that backdrop, the European Union still imports 57% of the energy it consumes and spent €340 billion on fossil fuel imports last year. Even so, the article argues that Europe’s economic response shows structural changes are paying off. The European Commission cut its 2026 growth forecast in May to 1.1% from 1.5%, while pencilling in a rebound to 1.4% next year. Unemployment is holding at around 6% across the period.
More output with less energy
The core claim is that every euro of EU output now requires 44% less energy than it did in 1995, with more than a third of that improvement achieved since 2019 alone. Between 1990 and 2024, the bloc expanded its economy by more than 70% while cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 40%. It now emits 184 grams of CO2 equivalent per euro generated and accounts for about 5% of global emissions.
The article also notes that primary energy consumption fell 9.6% in the decade to 2024, and by 21% in Germany over the same period. In the author’s framing, an economy that produces more while burning less is not stagnating; it is becoming more efficient.
The Spain-Italy contrast
To illustrate the point, the analysis compares Spain and Italy. In Spain, gas set the power price in about 15% of hours this year, versus 89% in Italy. Spain ended 2025 with renewables covering 55.5% of electricity generation, or 56.6% including self-consumption, and has more than 80 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity.
Italy, by contrast, imports 74.8% of its energy and generated 52.3% of its electricity from fossil fuels. When Hormuz shut, Spain posted 0.7% growth in the second quarter and outpaced Germany, France and Italy. Goldman Sachs described that as structural resilience and said Spain has recorded the best productivity growth among the EU’s four biggest economies since 2021. Italy, meanwhile, was flagged as the eurozone’s most exposed economy if high prices persist.
The broader conclusion is that the same war, the same shipping routes and the same currency produced very different outcomes for countries that made different energy-system choices over the previous decade.
Russian gas down, LNG dependence reshaped
OilPrice also highlights the shift in Europe’s import mix. Russian gas has fallen from 45% of EU imports to about 12%. At the same time, the United States now supplies roughly two-thirds of Europe’s LNG and 89% of Germany’s, with $750 billion committed through 2028.
That does not mean Europe is fully insulated, the author argues. Rather, the point is that the continent has reduced how strongly energy shocks feed through to the economy, through measures ranging from home insulation and heat pumps to public transport and renewable power expansion.
The analysis cites Paris as an example: across two rounds of Plan Vélo, the city built about 1,000 kilometers of cycling infrastructure and removed a large share of on-street parking. Cycling has since become the city’s second most common mode of transport, ahead of driving. In the author’s view, such changes are not always labelled energy policy, but they permanently reduce demand for imported fuel.
In closing, the article argues that Europe is often measured against the United States and China as if all three were playing by the same rules. As an example, it points to healthcare spending: the US spends about 17.6% of GDP, or roughly $14,900 per person, and has a life expectancy of 78.4 years, while the EU spends around 10% and reaches 81.5 years. The implication is that headline economic activity does not always capture real efficiency or resilience.
