Europe is heading into winter with one of the lowest levels of gas storage in nearly two decades, currently at 63% full, due to the war in Iran severely disrupting Qatari LNG supplies. Europe is losing the battle with Asia for scarce LNG cargoes, pushing TTF gas and northwest European LNG prices to their highest levels since 2023.
The EU may miss its flexible 75% November storage target, raising the risk of forced winter buying, higher gas and electricity prices, and an even tougher refill challenge in 2027.
Earlier this year, European policymakers and gas network operators knew they needed to ramp up spring and summer purchases to fill storage sites that were depleting fast, but the Iran war and the near disappearance of Qatari LNG supply was an unpredictable black swan event.
Europe now needs to fight for gas to fill storage sites to reasonably adequate levels before December to avoid a winter supply crunch.
