YEREVAN, August 14. /ARKA/. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again in September amid persistent inflationary pressure, after which it will maintain its monetary policy unchanged at least until mid-2027. This is evidenced by the results of a Reuters survey.
The majority of economists surveyed — 57 out of 69, or 83% — expect the ECB's deposit rate to increase by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%. Before the July meeting, 72% of respondents held this view.
The need for further tightening of policy is linked to rising energy prices and accelerating inflation in the eurozone to 2.9% against the ECB's target of 2%. In June, the regulator already raised the rate, and in July took a pause, indicating the likelihood of another step.
About 80% of economists expect the deposit rate to end 2026 at 2.5%, while 63% predict it will remain at this level at least until the third quarter of 2027. If this scenario materializes, the current tightening cycle will be the shortest for the ECB since 2011.
Economists have also raised inflation expectations: median forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of the current year have been increased to 3% and 3.2%, respectively. A return to the target inflation rate of 2% is expected only in the third quarter of 2027.
At the same time, the growth forecast for the eurozone economy for 2026 has been raised to 0.8% from 0.5% expected in July. In the second quarter, the economy of the currency bloc grew by 0.4%, exceeding forecasts.
