Weather conditions in Europe this year could have a meaningful impact on the energy market. According to Thomson Reuters, the El Niño climate pattern may bring record-strength winds, potentially reshaping forecasts for natural gas demand across the region.
El Niño is linked to warming sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific and affects weather systems around the world. For Europe, it could mean a milder winter and stronger winds. In that scenario, wind power would receive a fresh boost, while utilities could reduce their consumption of natural gas.
Meteorologists expect an especially strong El Niño in 2026. World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said the phenomenon’s readings this year could be record-breaking.
According to meteorological service Nebbo, El Niño is expected to peak between November and January. That suggests the related weather anomalies will also be felt during winter. Gerard Castro, head of Nebbo’s technology division, said winter El Niño conditions are associated with negative pressure anomalies in the central North Atlantic.
He said that shifts the path of the jet stream, strengthening westerly winds over the United Kingdom, the North Sea, Ireland and Scandinavia. If the forecasts materialize, Europe’s wind farms, especially in the North Sea and in Germany, the United Kingdom and France, could significantly increase electricity generation by the end of 2026.
That would mark an important change for the sector after several years of relatively weak performance in wind energy.
