The president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, Marcílio Ferreira, has stated that next year the coffee harvest in the country may decrease. This could be due to the El Niño climate phenomenon if it leads to a lack of rainfall this autumn.
Meteorologists recorded the onset of El Niño in June, and currently, this phenomenon continues to strengthen. According to American scientists, the likelihood that it will become very strong by the end of the year is 95%. In the southeastern region of Brazil, which is the main area for growing Arabica coffee, a prolonged drought is forecasted.
“The impact of El Niño on the harvest is likely to become more noticeable from September and possibly especially in October. It is important to monitor the development of the phenomenon during the flowering period, as regular rainfall is needed afterward. If the amount of rainfall significantly decreases, the Brazilian harvest could be affected,” Ferreira stated.
As the council head noted, the prospects for the harvest can only be assessed after the flowering is complete, during the initial fruiting stage, and after the further growth of the fruits. Weather conditions will play a decisive role at each of these stages.
“The current state of the plantations allows hope for an excellent harvest next year, although it does not necessarily mean it will be as large as this year's harvest. However, everything will depend on future weather conditions,” the council president emphasized.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon during which the surface water temperature in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean rises to anomalously high levels. As a result of this process, the air temperature regime and the nature of precipitation can change.
Brazil is one of the regions affected by El Niño; in the north and the Amazon, severe droughts and extreme heat are recorded, while heavy rains and floods are observed in the southern regions.
