Conflicts and weather anomalies have caused record increases in food prices. According to the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks the price dynamics of 10 major agricultural products, the index surged by 13% in August, reaching $434. This is the largest monthly increase in the past 14 years.
The main driver of price increases has been wheat. Its quotes have reached a three-year high amid supply issues from Black Sea ports. At the end of August, the price of one bushel (27.2 kg) reached $7.79, the highest level since February 2023.
Analysts at Lachstock Consulting warn that the crisis is taking on a systemic nature. If exports from the Black Sea region do not recover, the market will face multi-season supply issues rather than short-term logistical problems. The company also highlights a global shortage of quality grain.
“The quality of Argentine wheat raises doubts, Canada has restrictions, Australia faces export capacity limitations, and America is increasingly becoming a more expensive residual supplier.”
Another factor putting pressure on the market is the climate. Summer heat has severely damaged corn crops in the US and Europe. For the upcoming agricultural season, including cocoa bean plantations, an additional threat is posed by the natural phenomenon of “El Niño,” which continues to affect weather conditions worldwide.
