Bitcoin ended the week above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a technical development that market watchers see as a potentially important sign that the cryptocurrency’s prolonged bear phase may be ending.
According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin was trading near $81,450 at the time of writing. The asset gained nearly 6% over the week, while its rebound over the past 35 days reached 29%. What stands out is that the weekly candle did not merely test the 50-week average — it closed above it.
Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn said the move could serve as a meaningful confirmation that the market’s bear period may have run its course and that a new uptrend may be taking shape. Analysts generally place more weight on daily or weekly closes above a major moving average than on a brief move through it.
Why the 50-week average matters
The 50-week moving average is the average of weekly closing prices over roughly the past year. In market analysis, it is often used as a gauge of Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
During healthy advances, Bitcoin usually trades above that line. During extended downturns, rebound attempts often fail below it. Galaxy has previously described the average as a kind of ceiling during major Bitcoin drawdowns.
The firm found that since 2011, Bitcoin has closed a week back above its 50-week moving average 13 times. In 11 of those cases, the market did not go on to set a new low, suggesting that the worst part of the decline had already passed.
- After the 2011 crash, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012 and then rallied roughly 600-fold, rising from around $2 to about $1,200 by late 2013.
- After the 2014–15 bear market, it moved back above the line in October 2015 and then climbed roughly 100-fold, from around $200 to about $20,000 in December 2017.
- Following the 2018 crash, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in May 2019 and did not revisit its cycle low. From roughly $3,200, it later advanced about 22-fold to above $69,000 in November 2021.
- After the 2022 market bottom, Bitcoin crossed above the average in March 2023 and stayed there for more than two years. From a low near $15,500, it then rose roughly eightfold to a record of about $126,000 in October 2025.
Still, the pattern is not foolproof. Galaxy Research notes that 2 of the 13 cases failed. Both came during the volatile period from late 2021 to early 2022, when Bitcoin briefly moved above the 50-week average before turning lower again and eventually heading toward $16,000. Those failed reclaims were recorded on Dec. 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022.
At present, CoinDesk data shows the 50-week moving average at around $78,115. If history offers a guide, the latest reclaim may suggest that the bear-market low was set near $60,000 in recent months. Whether Bitcoin can continue toward new highs, however, will depend on its ability to hold above the 50-week average in the weeks ahead.
