Boeing (BA) shares posted another weak week, closing at $198.20 on September 18. The stock fell 4.83% over the past five trading sessions and is down 12.98% since the start of the year.
The latest decline followed comments by Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg at Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference on September 16. He pointed to fresh challenges in ramping up 737 and 787 production and said certification testing for the 777X would stretch further into 2027. The remarks added to investor caution as Boeing tries to convince the market that its turnaround remains achievable.
Production and certification setbacks weighed on the stock
Ortberg said the 737 production line has not yet stabilized at Boeing’s target rate of 47 jets per month. He linked the delay to in-house wing production, while saying the broader supply chain is holding up.
He also offered a more positive update on the 737 MAX 10, saying certification should come “very soon.” Ortberg told analysts that when he left Seattle the previous day, he believed there were three deliverables left to complete.
Ortberg further confirmed that certification testing for the delayed 777X widebody will now continue into 2027. The aircraft is already running about seven years behind its original schedule, while its ETOPS certification has been slowed by an engine seal issue involving the GE Aerospace-built GE9X turbine. GE Aerospace (GE) said certification can proceed with the current seals and that upgraded parts began shipping in August.
Bank of America says the selloff has gone too far
Bank of America aerospace and defense analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated his Buy rating on Boeing and kept a $270 price target after the selloff. In his view, Ortberg’s comments triggered an intraday drop of about 7% in BA shares, and the market reaction was “a bit dramatic.”
Epstein argued that Boeing’s turnaround was never likely to follow a straight line. He said the company operates in a complex, heavily regulated industry, and its execution had previously been seriously impaired, meaning the recovery would naturally take time. Even so, he believes the broader direction remains positive. His $270 target implies upside of about 36% from the September 18 close.
The bigger near-term risk may be labor, not production noise
Epstein also highlighted a separate risk that he believes the market may be overlooking: the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), whose current contract expires on October 6.
SPEEA represents around 17,000 engineers responsible for certification safety analysis and related paperwork. Their work and approval are needed for Boeing to keep aircraft moving through the pipeline. Boeing and SPEEA reached a tentative four-year agreement earlier in September, but members still need to vote on it. If they reject the deal, a strike could follow.
Despite that risk, Epstein said he remains comfortable with Bank of America’s 2026 free cash flow forecast of $2.4 billion for Boeing. He also noted that the 737 MAX 10 accounts for about 30% of Boeing’s 737 backlog, making its certification important for future cash flow.
What investors are watching next
Recent management comments have fueled speculation around Boeing, but the underlying direction of the recovery has not changed. In 2026, the company has been delivering more jets than at any point since 2018, and earlier this year its order book topped $695 billion, helped by new 737 MAX commitments from Turkish Airlines and Flydubai.
That backlog will translate into cash flow only if Boeing can build and certify aircraft on schedule. If SPEEA members reject the tentative deal, or if 777X testing is delayed again, free cash flow forecasts may need to move lower. On the other hand, a 737 MAX 10 certification and approval of the SPEEA agreement could improve market sentiment.
