For 14 years, one ratio moved only in bitcoin's favor. Now it has decisively turned the other way and bulls may not like what it means.
This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, priced in bitcoin, just broke above their 200-week moving averages for the first time since 2012. This shift suggests that days of parabolic BTC gains may be behind us.
The S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio, which measures how much bitcoin it takes to buy the index, now stands at roughly 0.12 BTC, down from more than 300 BTC in 2012. The ratio has generally dropped since BTC’s inception in 2010, with the 200-week simple moving average acting as a ceiling.
In recent weeks, the ratio hasn't just topped the 200-week average, it's established a firm foothold above it. This behavior is not isolated to the S&P 500; the Nasdaq/BTC ratio is showing the same first-ever crossover above the 200-week average. This may be painful for bulls, as it suggests bitcoin’s era of outsized rallies versus equities has probably ended.
