Artificial intelligence could increase global trade volumes by about 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Organization’s 2026 world trade report.
At the same time, the WTO says the rapid advance of technology, shifts in the structure of the global economy and rising geopolitical tensions require the global trading system to adapt to new conditions.
The report says AI can boost productivity, lower trade costs and expand trade in both goods and services. However, access to technology and the economic benefits of its adoption are distributed unevenly across countries. In particular, the least developed countries account for less than 1% of global trade.
The WTO, which now has 166 members and covers around 98% of world trade, stresses that existing trade rules do not always keep pace with changes such as digitalization, the development of AI, environmental policy and growing state intervention in the economy.
One of the main risks identified by the WTO is the fragmentation of global trade. According to its modelling, a split of the world economy into trade blocs could lead to a significant reduction in global GDP and exports. By contrast, deeper international trade cooperation could deliver additional growth for the world economy and trade.
The WTO says the multilateral trading system needs to be adapted to new technological and economic realities, including through the development of digital trade rules and more effective use of the potential of artificial intelligence.
