Bullish · confidence: 82% · scenarios: 63 / 6 / 31 (bull / neutral / bear)
UNI is trading near $9.35 after a 39.61% 7-day gain, though it is down 13.49% over the past 24 hours. The model assigns a 63% probability to the bullish scenario with 82% confidence. Daily and 4-hour signals remain broadly constructive, but a weekly RSI of 73.43 and a 1W death cross suggest the market may still be high-risk after the recent surge.
Uniswap (UNI) is trading around $9.35, with a market capitalization of $5.80B and 24-hour volume of $1.58B. The asset sits in the Decentralized Exchange (DEX) category and ranks #22 by market cap.
The recent move has been powerful. UNI is up 113.63% over 30 days, compared with BTC's 6.76% change over the same period. The token also gained 39.61% over 7 days, although the latest 24-hour move came in at -13.49%, showing that short-term volatility remains elevated.
Technical picture
On the daily timeframe, the structure remains constructive. Price is above SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, and SMA200, while the 1D golden cross remains in place with SMA50 at 5.5765 above SMA200. The SMA50 slope is also positive at +10.496635%, which may point to a still-firm medium-term trend. Daily RSI stands at 69.39, showing strong momentum, though it is also approaching overextended territory.
On the 4-hour chart, the setup is still broadly bullish. There is a golden cross, bullish MA alignment, and a positive SMA50 slope of +3.457137%. At the same time, the MACD histogram is negative and Stoch RSI is very low, which may mean the market is still trying to stabilize after the recent pullback rather than fully re-accelerating.
The 1-hour timeframe looks more neutral. RSI is 46.39, suggesting short-term momentum has cooled. Even so, the 1H golden cross is still active, so the broader intraday structure has not fully broken down.
The weekly view is mixed. On one hand, RSI is 73.43, the price/volume signal is bullish, and price closed above the upper Bollinger Band. On the other hand, the 1W chart still shows a death cross and a negative SMA50 slope of -1.820216%. That combination could mean the current rally is strong, but the longer-term structure has not fully shifted into a stable bullish regime.
Key levels
The nearest daily support sits in the $8.60-$9.11 zone. If that area holds, UNI could attempt another push toward the major daily resistance at $9.73-$10.36. A confirmed move above that range may help preserve the bullish scenario.
If price loses the $8.60-$9.11 area, the next support zones appear at $6.89-$7.48, $6.20-$6.65, and $5.32-$6.00. In a deeper pullback, the daily major support is down at $3.00-$3.85.
On the weekly chart, the main resistance is at $12.03-$12.30, with the next listed resistance at $17.05. On the downside, broader support zones include $7.62-$8.68 and $5.90-$6.88 if the market enters a larger correction phase.
Market context
Altcoin performance has been strong over the past 30 days, with alt_vs_btc_30d at 106.87. Against that backdrop, UNI's 113.63% 30-day gain shows relative outperformance. At the same time, BTC dominance stands at 58.74% and ETH dominance at 11.36%, while both BTC and ETH are marked with a distribution structure. That may imply the broader market remains selective and vulnerable to profit-taking.
Scenario view
The model currently assigns a 63% probability to the bullish case, versus 31% for bearish and 6% for neutral. That suggests the primary trend may remain upward, especially if UNI holds the $8.60-$9.11 support zone and re-engages the $9.73-$10.36 resistance area.
Still, volatility is significant. The 1D ATR% is 8.81%, while weekly ATR% is 13.38%. If price continues to rise on weaker-than-average volume on lower timeframes and the weekly overbought condition deepens, UNI could shift into a more extended consolidation or pullback.
- Price: $9.35
- 24h change: -13.49%
- 7d change: +39.61%
- Market cap: $5.80B
- 24h volume: $1.58B
- Bullish probability: 63%
Market snapshot
| Price | 9.35 |
|---|---|
| 24h % | -13.49 |
| 7d % | 39.61 |
| Market cap | 5,801,366,543 |
| Volume 24h | 1,581,930,948 |
| Rank | 22 |
Scores
| Technical | 72 |
|---|---|
| Momentum | 57 |
| Trend | 79 |
| Volume | 48 |
| Fundamental | 68 |
| Market strength | 56 |
| Risk | 74 |
| Opportunity | 64 |
Signals
- Golden cross / SMA50 above SMA200 (1h, bullish)
- Golden cross / SMA50 above SMA200 (4h, bullish)
- Bullish MA alignment (4h, bullish)
- Rising SMA50 (4h, bullish)
- Up move on weak volume (4h, bearish)
- Golden cross / SMA50 above SMA200 (1d, bullish)
- Bullish MA alignment (1d, bullish)
- Rising SMA50 (1d, bullish)
- RSI above midpoint (1d, bullish)
- Up move on weak volume (1d, bearish)
- Death cross / SMA50 below SMA200 (1w, bearish)
- Falling SMA50 (1w, bearish)
Support / resistance
- Major support 1: 6.353 – 6.576 (1h)
- Support 2: 6.054 – 6.268 (1h)
- Support 3: 4.145 – 4.375 (1h)
- Support 4: 6.666 – 6.865 (1h)
- Support 5: 5.806 – 6 (1h)
- Support 6: 4.446 – 4.575 (1h)
- Support 7: 6.89 – 7.096 (1h)
- Support 8: 7.153 – 7.347 (1h)
- Major support 1: 3.877 – 4.236 (4h)
- Support 2: 3.269 – 3.786 (4h)
Market context
| BTC.D | 58.74 |
|---|---|
| BTC 30d % | 6.76 |
| Alt vs BTC 30d | 106.87 |
| BTC structure | distribution |
| ETH structure | distribution |
Where to trade
This is informational analysis, not investment advice and not a profit guarantee. Crypto assets are high risk; past data does not guarantee future results.
