YEREVAN, July 17. /ARKA/. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly around Iran, are increasing risks for Armenia's economy in logistics, passenger transport, tourism, and price stability, according to economist Grant Mikaelyan.
In an interview with the ARKA agency, he noted that the main risk is global in nature: further escalation could worsen the global economic environment and create external risks for Armenia comparable to the consequences of previous global crises.
Mikaelyan assessed that the current situation has a stronger impact on passenger transport than on freight transport. He pointed out the rising costs of air travel, which is particularly sensitive for Armenia given its geographical location.
The economist also noted that energy prices, including gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas, have already increased by about 20-25%. The rise in energy costs may be passed on to prices and increase inflationary pressure. However, the scale and duration of such an effect will depend on the further development of the regional situation and the dynamics of global prices.
Most Sensitive Sectors
The most sensitive sectors to the escalation of the situation, the expert named tourism and areas related to passenger traffic, as well as logistics for trade with Iran, the UAE, and the countries of the Persian Gulf.
In his opinion, an additional factor of uncertainty for the currency market and inflation remains Armenia's foreign economic ties, including the dynamics of relations with Russia.
Overall, according to Mikaelyan, this creates regional instability and military-political risks for Armenia, especially considering the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the persistent risks from Azerbaijan.
Speaking about new opportunities that Armenia might extract from this situation, the expert noted that such issues should be addressed by relevant state institutions.
“It is possible that such opportunities exist. But at the moment, I find it difficult to name them, as I believe that serious research is needed, especially considering that the situation is changing very rapidly,” he concluded.
